Why We Should(n’t) Be Bullish

Bitcoin has had a very good start of the year, rising 40% and bringing a Golden Cross only a good 84 days before the estimated Halving event. Just like last G.C., we dropped ~10% and if history repeats, we’re looking for great gains and maybe even a new ATH …. But then… Why am I scared?

Golden Cross

Historicly, both events trigger huge profits. In the 84 days running up to the last halving, there was a price increase of 70% right to near the halving. The Golden Cross, a bull-market signal in stocks and financial markets, returned 170% profit within the next 65 days.

As these two events collide, the cards are righ for a moon mission. Even with the recent drop and sideways, the setup is eerily similar. Short term, some analysts and CT personas are respectfull of the trend and make fair and low predictions. 11.5k – 11.8k in the next weeks.
I tend to agree with them on this one, as I do not believe BTC is running out of steam. To my feeling, and everything in history about this moment; BTC is screaming ATH in the not so distant future.

History often rhymes

Last halving and future halving

When looking at what the Golden Cross did and the effect of the Halving on the future price of Bitcoin, one could speculate that we would have Bitcoin at 15k shortly before the halving, drop back down to 12k-10k and start grinding up until the media comes around and starts the pump of a lifetime, making a x20 – x45 from last ATH.

Extra

There is also a big extra at this point in time; the tech is maturing.

Bitcoin hasn’t be this stable, powerfull (hashrate) and fast (both core and Layer2 lightning) for a long time. The value for humanity, technology and investors is only increasing by the day. Sure there are alts that outperform (in whitepaper) the current state of Bitcoin, but hard work is being put in and Bitcoin hase become a very well known name by the public.

Look at the full picture, ZOOM OUT

It all sounds too good to be true. Throw in 5k to 25k and financial freedom is something for the near future!!

But when it sounds too good to be true, it mostly is. I do have a realistic view on the market and it can’t be overlooked at this point.

We have a lot more:
* Players in the game, thinking they’ll get rich quick
* Whales, financial institutions that dipped their toes and larger investors, people who sold the top and bought back in near the bottom
* Hype to do x20
* Fiat, ETH, … onramps

I’ll start with the onramps. Like Binance, Coinbase, …
Most exchanges have either direct FIAT entry or at least have FIAT-pegged stablecoin markets. This reduces the demand for Bitcoin DRASTICLY!
In 2016, you really needed BTC to buy DOGE, ETH, …. and profit was taken in BTC. Now we have a whole market working in USDT/BUSD/…

The more players in this game, the less experienced a market is. Younger traders tend to be shaken out more easily and often, making Bitcoin stutter on the way up. These are also the ones who will think in USD (or BNB?) for their profit taking, leaving the BTC side for the “nerds”.

The hype for a x20 is thus a big danger. Because of the stutters they create themselves, inexperienced traders will think the bullish momentum is gone and sell, adding to the pressure. Because they trade mostly in USD anyway, they will kick up the Satoshi price of alts instead of the USD price of BTC. Good for us who calculate in BTC to profit from, but our BTC won’t see the massive growth it used to in the last post halving event.

And finaly, the big players… who make me think short term could be bearish and break any rhyme or echo from the past:
If you take into account that there are a reasonable amount of people who’ve saved 150+ $ /month in BTC, for multiple years, they gathered multiple thousands of Bitcoin. Add to that institutions and larger capital individuals/firms …Why would they want expensive Bitcoin right before the supply drops by half?

If you think about it. If you have 5000 BTC and want more, by selling 1000 at $10.5k you can get the price down so you can buy 2000 BTC sub 10K, that’s a worthwhile risk. Why stop there? 5K BTC is even more interesting in the short term, until supply dries up. Then you let the newer “kids” buy up the scarce coins, pumping it up to past ATH and whenever the majority of whales would like to buy more lower, they start selling again…

Conclusion

I only have longs at the moment.I am extremely bullish on BTC, ETH, VET, NEO, RVN and have my eye on LTC, XRP and others.

This has all the signs of a great pre halving pump, maybe even breaking ATH by a few $100 and I should only take advantage of that!

But this is also a time of great caution. This is NOT like past GCs/Halvings, we are in a new stage of Bitcoin!

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